The American withdrawal from Iraq could be a deadly instance of history repeating itself: a letter to the editor of the Economist magazine (not published)

The recent Baker-Hamilton Iraq study group report is optimistic in its recommendations for withdrawal of nearly all American troops by early 2008. It seeks to use this deadline as a bolster that will motivate the Iraqi government to step up their efforts to take over the counties security responsibility. However, following the recommendations as stated could cause the United States to come frighteningly close to repeating history.

A premature departure from the conflict will likely have the same result as the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989. Firstly, the Soviets left an incredibly volatile country that erupted into several years of debilitating civil war due to sectarian violence, warlords and a rag-tag collection of left over Arab insurgents. The result of this is well known- a perfect breeding ground for radical Islamic ideology and terrorist training camps. The second potential parallel is that Soviet withdrawal was trumpeted as a great defeat of an infidel superpower by the Mujahideen insurgents. This defeat greatly emboldened their cause, giving them much greater clout and support for operations against the next superpower they were to topple. If the region falls into chaos and another sectarian civil war, Osama bin Laden and his supporters and followers will inevitably see it as a sign of the righteousness of their cause, which will in turn solidify a much more substantial support base from the hundreds of thousands of Muslims that are on the fence about the Islamic radical’s strategy and ideology.

A change in policy is certainly needed, but if the recommendations for a 2008 withdrawal of forces are to be implemented, the government must be sure that the Iraqi forces will be able to take over, or else the recent history of the American-Middle East conflict will be played over again.

The Reveries Takes on a New Life and New Focus

It has been a few months now since I returned from my trip to Turkey. As such I have not felt the need to continue to post articles and updates on this site. Yet, fate has called me to travel once more to the Middle East for a radically different purpose. For this reason I feel the call to write about my experiences and comment on the political environment that I will be immersed in once again. I feel, though, that this time what I will be involved in will be much more serious and noteworthy as I will be directly participating in a major historical event. This new heightened seriousness has also inspired me to study the conflict in Afghanistan and the surrounding region with more gusto and deliberate intent. The result of this is that I will use this forum to self-publish more writings on political and military commentary on the conflicts in the Middle East. I have also begun to publish more on Christian subjects, most recently for the magazine Christian Weekly. What follows will be a stepping off point for a potentially productive hobby as a columnist and political/military commentator.